Global warming has become the biggest threat to the survival of humanity. Atiya Anis analyses the damage done.

Yesterday while I was glancing through the newspaper, I saw a report released by the White House. It says that the next 30 to 40 years will see wars over water. Increased hunger, instability, rising sea level and global warming refugees will be the new challenges of the millennium. The former US Army chief of staff Gordon Sullivan said, ‘Climate change exacerbates an already unstable situation. It’s not hard to make a connection between climate change and instability or climate change and terrorism.’

The entire world today is concerned about the sudden shift in the weather seen in almost every part of the continent. About 35,000 people died from heat waves in Europe in 2003. The threat posed by the green house emission is expected to bring unprecedented change in the climate. An Intergovernmental Panel on climate change was created in 1998 constituting of scientists of about 113 countries. In its recent assessment of the situation the committee said, ‘Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as it is evident from observations of increase in global average air and ocean temperature, widespread melting of snow and ice and rise in global mean sea level.’ The coming years may comprise of fewer cold days, hotter nights, killer heat waves, floods, devastating drought and an increase in hurricane and storms. If the polar ice still continues to melt, the sea level will rise by 7-23 inches. It means devastation for those who live by the coast. Methane, ozone and dust have an increased presence in the atmosphere with CO2 being 30 percent higher than that in pre-industrialized era.

The year 2006 saw very mild winter. The temperatures reached up to 35 degrees by the end of January. Unseasoned rain and storm have become the order of the day. The untimely rain in Mumbai on July 26 and 27, 2005 is a clear example of uneven climate change. As the glaciers melt there will be an adverse impact on the food grain production. Availability of water will also decline to 30 percent by the end of 2050. The global warming is expected to raise the earth’s temperature 1.4 to 5.8 degree Celsius by the century end.

The dignitaries at Kyoto agreed to the fact that the developed countries were the major contributors to the greenhouse emission, with US being responsible for one third of the emission. Fossil fuel is still the prime source of energy generation. Apoorva Sainai who is working with Taru Mitra. (An organization for protection of trees) observes that for every kilowatt-hour of electricity produced about 1.39 pounds of carbon dioxide is released in the air. This excess emission may be absorbed in the ocean but the over accumulation may further change the chemistry of the oceans making it more acidic and threatening to marine life.

But another aspect of the story still uncovered is that a long period of cooling may also be expected. The coolest occur around 2030. Recent data indicates that the Antarctica has cooled over the years instead of warming up. The 8200-year-old event of Little Ice age may reoccur. Ice age lasted from 1300 to 1870. Farms in Norway were covered with glaciers and the entire Europe witnessed famine and crop failure. ‘We still don’t understand the reasons behind the increase. Greenland’s temperature dropped by about 3 degrees Celsius.The scientists worldwide seem to be puzzled over the abrupt climatic changes. Researchers suggest that the increase in the green house emission may lead to abrupt cooling. According to meteorologists, the 11 warmest years on record have all occurred since 1990. The plants and animals are adapting and moving — some even going extinct — because they have no choice.

‘Changes in the conveyor were responsible for some of the most noticeable climate changes in scientific history. About 12,000 years ago, as the earth emerged from the most recent Ice Age and the North Atlantic region warmed, an influx of fresh water - perhaps from melting ice sheets - shut down the great conveyor and plunged much of the Northern Hemisphere back into ice-age conditions that lasted 1,000 years. About 500 years ago a reduction of the ocean conveyors may have turned the climate in northern Europe and the northeastern United States much colder, during what became known as the Little Ice Age, which lasted for about 300 years. In America, the Little Ice Age coincided with the notorious winter at Valley Forg,’ says Terrence Joyce a scientist says in New York Times.

‘Adding 1 million trees to the city will reduce carbon dioxide by 1 million tons, which is equal to 7000 cars being off the road each year,’ adds a renowned environmentalist. Though the damages done are irreparable yet we all can do something on our part to minimize the greenhouse emission. The use of solar devices, stop misuse of electricity, conservation of water is some steps, which can make the world a safer place for the next generation. Alarm bells are ringing. The sooner the world wakes up to the reality the greater is the possibility of security.